Economic Outlook

 

 

Euler Hermes Economic Outlook luo katsauksen viimeisimpiin makrotaloudellisiin suuntauksiin sekä konkurssiennusteisiin. Julkaisua toimittavat Euler Hermesin asiantuntijat ja ekonomit ympäri maailmaa.
Se käsittelee ajankohtaisia teemoja eri maissa ja toimialoilla sekä auttaa sinua arvioimaan kansainvälisiä riskejä ja uusia mahdollisuuksia markkinoilla.

 

 

 
 

Latest Issues​

Economic Outlook: Trade wars

Economic Outlook, October 2016 - Trade Wars: The Force Weakens


Special report

Global trade growth weakens to +2.1% in 2016 in volume. In 2017, it would grow by a modest +3.1%. Demand shocks, the super slump in commodities prices, currency war, and domesticalization (lesser dependence on trade) explain this disappointing performance. In the medium-term, because of structural shifts and financial fragmentation, growth in the volume of world trade is expected to stay below +4% annually. In this context, companies will have to find new alternatives – such as digitalization - to expand their business.



Economic Outlook Automotive Market September 2016

Economic Outlook, September 2016 - Public bumpers for the automotive market

 

Special report

The global auto market remains divided. On the one hand, Europe, China, and the United States will post strong growth. On the other, India is stagnant, Japan is floundering and Russia and Brazil continue their dizzying drop. Greater intervention by public policy in market dynamics is one clear trend. Another is the growing fascination with and investment in the future of the sector and in particular electric and autonomous cars.


Outlook-august-2016

Economic Outlook, August 2016 - The Price of Growth

 

Global growth

Global growth could slow this year to +2.4% and might accelerate marginally in 2017 (+2.7%).  The slowdown in prices has pushed down nominal growth, turnovers, and trade. This priceless growth is set to cause a rise in insolvencies by +1% this year and in 2017. Net consumers, importers, and debtors benefit from low prices and yields, while net producers and exporters, savers and creditors are having a hard time.

Outlook-july-2016

Economic Outlook, July 2016 - Around the world in eight maps

 

Economic trends

This edition offers an atlas consisting of 8 maps which all depicts economic trends across regions and countries, sectors and industries: Global GDP growth, global trade, corporate's cash pile, Days Sales Outstanding, insolvencies, collection complexity, sector risk and country risk.

Outlook-february-2016
Economic Outlook, February 2016 - Let the Sector games begin
 
Global Sector Outlook  
This August, Brazil will host the 2016 Summer Olympics. Rio
2016 promises to be not only a major multi-sports event but
also a magnifying lens on Brazil’s worst recession since the
1990s. In preparation for this year’s Olympiad, we looked at
the fierce competition among companies around the world.
Outlook-Jan-2016
 
Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook​
​​2016 obviously got off to a flying start with another round of fear factors coming all the way from China. One bad leading indicator coupled with stumbling circuitbreakers sufficed to trigger a stock market and currency carnage and get the planet to worry about China and the world.
Outlook-Sep-Oct-2015

 
Business Insolvency Worldwide
This year will be remembered as a turning point: the world realized emerging markets are called emerging for a reason. After a five-year love story with the fastest-growing part of the world, time has come for a reality check. Large current account deficits, a vulnerable private sector and a highly politicized reform agenda often mean a perfect storm for capital outflows, volatility (and nervousness), and credit risks.
Outlook-july-august-2015

Economic Outlook, August 2015 - Auto market: A live wire​

 
Special Report
Things are going amazingly (too) fast in today’s world of
disruption. The collaborative consumer is king. The Sharing
or On-Demand economy and digital transformation – simply
the tip of the iceberg – are just a few of the developments
that are knocking traditional industries off course.
Outlook-maj-juni-2015

Economic Outlook, June 2015 - Riding into risks or recovery?​

 
Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook
Doing business is like riding a bicycle: to keep your balance
you must keep moving; and it has been quite a mud run
lately! Companies have for a long time realized that they
have to fight relentlessly to avoid getting bogged down by
political turbulence, liquidity freeze and bewildering confidence
headwinds.
Outlook-marts-april-2015

Economic Outlook, April 2015 - Focus on the signal and ignore the noise

 
Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook
We are almost there! After six years of intense depression, it seems that a weaker euro, lower oil prices and cheap financing costs are doing the trick - the largest economy in the world, Europe, is finally on the mend. It did not come at zero cost for companies and households, but we should rejoice of finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. In the meantime, the world has changed dramatically.
Outlook-marts_2015

Economic Outlook, March 2015 - Global Trade: What’s cooking?

 
Special Report
Like a cyclist against the wind, global trade has been fighting an uphill battle. Yes, the outlook does look better overall and trade-gnation sounds like old news, but competition is fierce. Trade is like a marathon; there are front runners and laggards, hungry competitors, those who burn out and those who fade away. Will eager nations catch up? Will outsiders once again change the rules of the game? To answer these questions, we opened the lid and looked at what is cookin’ in the global trade pan.
Outlook-januar_2015

Economic Outlook, January 2015 - Overview 2015: Not such a Grimm tale but no fabled happy ending

 
Special Report
As the nights become increasingly dark, at least in the northern hemisphere, those of us with children may pass the time telling fables and short-stories by the fireplace – heaters work too. Euler Hermes’ seven fairy tales on the 2015 economic outlook is a Tiger Mom’s best companion to start (albeit very early) the development of her child’s economic skills. It all starts with: Once upon a time in a global economic mess, and ends with and the Central Banker lived happily ever after.
 

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